The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index — released under delayed conditions, but it was within expectations. Next week will be another Federal Reserve Rate Decision, and it is expected that the Federal Reserve will reduce rates at least one more time. The optimism among the broader market has been showing that multiple sectors that seem unphased by the administrative decisions and current political climate.  … [Read more...]

Inflation reports have shown their cards, and they have come in line with expectations. These newer reports rely on less data from sources overall, which is why the PCE Index remains the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator—and that distinction is even more relevant now. Despite inflation coming in as expected, consumers are still feeling the steady pressure of price increases that are not keeping pace with wage growth. This is also consistent with what the PPI has shown, … [Read more...]

The trade deficit dropped significantly this month, resulting in the smallest gap in the last 16 years. This has been entirely driven by the ongoing gold rush and, to a much less impactful degree, businesses working their way around high tariffs. The unemployment reports, however, have shed another light, showing a steady trend of unemployment rising and reaching a four-year high as of last week. This is somewhat offset by consumer sentiment, which showed a slightly positive increase alongside … [Read more...]

With the only notable item on the schedule being the release of the Federal Reserve minutes, which reflect the current stance of the Fed, virtually nothing has changed since the last rate cut. The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its wait-and-see approach. Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.06% with the current rate at 5.44% 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.03% with the current rate at 6.15% MND Rate Index 30-Yr FHA rates saw no change for … [Read more...]