Inflation numbers are in and came in much higher than expected. Even the core inflation numbers for both reports were higher than anticipated. Core inflation is intended to exclude some of the most volatile components, including food and energy costs, painting a picture in which the Federal Reserve will need to continue its tightening measures until inflation is under control. In particular, the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a significant increase above expectations, impacting businesses and … [Read more...]

The FOMC Minutes and Consumer Sentiment report were the most impactful calendar items last week, further reinforcing the Federal Reserve's resolve to bring inflation down to its 2% target rate. While there is considerable speculation about another rate increase, recent analyst expectations suggest that the Fed will hold rates at their current level for some time. The Consumer Sentiment report showed a slight increase, largely driven by moderating gas prices, which have helped provide consumers … [Read more...]

While the Core PCE Index came in at 3.0%, below the expected 3.3%, overall inflation remains well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. With inflation still running above the Federal Reserve’s target, there remains room for rates to stay elevated or potentially increase over the next several rate decisions if the Fed remains focused on restraining inflation. The JOLTS job openings report has also revealed a larger-than-expected gap. Job growth across the board has been slowing, with … [Read more...]

With a light week the previous week, only a few data reports will have any far reaching impact, with the M2 money supply and the Federal Reserve Balance sheet giving the most insight. The M2 Money supply has really only increased ever since the COVID pandemic, and has more or less kept in line with the rate inflation has been impacting the costs of many sectors. While the Federal Reserve balance sheets show a trend of increasing lately, it has shown there is still restraint by the Federal … [Read more...]