While unemployment rates have fallen to their lowest levels since 2025, they have not fallen for the right reasons. Many people who have dropped out of the labor force have also stopped looking for work, which can skew the unemployment numbers. This has been followed by a smaller-than-expected increase in hourly pay, which has continued to lag behind inflation, especially in the current environment. This weakness has also been reflected in a reduction in overall payrolls, indicating an overall … [Read more...]

With the Federal Reserve meeting now concluded, and the board has decided to maintain current interest rates. However, attention remains focused on the potential for rate hikes at the next meeting. While inflation has continued to decline on a month-to-month basis, the overall year-over-year inflation rate remains well above the Federal Reserve's target. The PCE Index came in within expectations and has remained largely flat for the first time since the pandemic. Even so, inflation remains a … [Read more...]

The PCE Index inflation data is expected to come in lower this week than the previous month's reading. With the Federal Reserve's rate decision set to arrive soon, the prior week was relatively light in terms of economic data. Despite inflation continuing to trend lower, this is unlikely to have an impact on the rate decision later this week. However, it will likely spark further discussion about the current state of the economy. Although inflation remains persistent, there have also been … [Read more...]

Inflation has shown signs of easing for the first time since the early days of the COVID pandemic. However, inflation remains higher than anticipated. Both the PPI and CPI data releases came in lower than expected, suggesting that inflationary pressures may be beginning to moderate. This is based on the newer, more theoretical reporting for the PPI and CPI. It is unlikely this will cause any significant change in stance by the Federal Reserve, as it still prefers the PCE Index as its preferred … [Read more...]